Bendigo Bank, Media Release, 12 August 2025
Today’s release of the August Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Monthly Commodity Update finds that widespread rain in late July marked a turning point for Australia’s winter cropping season. Recent falls have further reinforced production confidence in NSW, Qld and large parts of WA and growers in Victoria and South Australia have also been given a renewed shot at achieving average yields or better, with decent falls in time to stabilise crop potential if spring conditions remain favourable.
Senior Manager Industry Affairs, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, Neil Burgess said: “Domestic wheat prices have eased as the production outlook improves, however, global grain flows remain heavy with global wheat production now forecast to hit a new record, reinforcing the heavy wheat supply backdrop and keeping markets under pressure.
“Canola and barley continue to provide better relative value and marketing flexibility than wheat at this stage of the season, offering stronger returns amid improving yield prospects and supportive prices. Western Australia is on track for a record barley crop and while canola prices have softened slightly over the past month, they remain historically strong.
“Australian beef exports have had an extraordinary year so far, with all of Australia’s major beef export markets recording growth in July. Beef is a hot commodity right now, amidst plenty of international demand that is expected to remain across the rest of 2025.
“High demand from international markets, particularly the US, boosted local beef prices further throughout July, recording the highest monthly export volumes on record at just under 150,500 tonnes. The imposition of the US 10 per cent tariff on Australian beef has so far not directly impacted export volume or price,” Mr Burgess concluded.
Other key findings:
Sheep: Australian lamb prices have continued to strengthen over the past couple of months, with records regularly broken. Mutton prices have also moved into record territory as supply tightens. Lamb export volumes over the past few months eased to the lowest level since January this year, with mutton export volumes also falling to the lowest point since July 2022. Lamb prices are forecast to be relatively steady throughout August but are expected to face downwards pressure into spring as new season lambs come to market. Tough conditions in key production regions across Australia’s southeast, as well as heightened turn off rates over the past 18 months, mean that new season lamb supply is expected to be significantly lower this season with prices expected to maintain a considerable premium compared to the five-year average.
Dairy: Milk producers who held back from early farmgate pricing offers have reportedly received contracts over $10/Kg MS as processors scramble to secure supply. Industry talk suggests that major processors needing to secure supply have been offering private contracts well above publicly announced bids, with some exceeding $10/Kg MS, raising questions about the pricing strategy from major processors and the application of the mandatory code of conduct intended to address the imbalance of bargaining power between farmers and processors.
Horticulture: Vegetable pricing across most sectors remains higher year-on-year, however, high input costs and challenging market conditions are continuing to squeeze grower margins, with fertiliser and chemical prices expected to remain volatile over coming months and irrigation costs at multi-year highs. On the bright side, urea prices are much improved compared to June when conflict across the Middle East saw a sudden price surge.
Trump tariffs shake up global horticultural trade
Almonds: Ongoing efforts by the US to upend global trade has resulted in increased focus by southern hemisphere horticultural exporters to diversify markets. This presents export opportunities for Australian almond producers to China, the second biggest global consumer of almonds after substantial retaliatory import tariffs were placed by China on US almonds. Local almond prices have soared to their highest level in a decade with low Australian stocks and a disappointing harvest supporting almond prices over coming months.
Stone fruit, avocadoes and table grapes: Australian stone fruit growers face increased competition from South Africa as a deal with China looks set to be inked in September, while avocado producers similarly face increased competition as the largest Chilean avocado crop in a decade is forecast to impact on demand for Australian product. Chile and Peru are also looking to diversify their table grape markets away from the US over the coming year with the 10 per cent US tariff likely to see these growers sending more fruit to Mexico, Europe and Asia.
Wool: Wool prices lifted to mark the start of the new season, supported by a slight decrease in supply and steady demand, defying currency changes. The opening of season 2025/26 saw the AWEX EMI increase for the first four successive weeks. Supply is already declining in comparison to last season, with cumulative bales offered -1.9 per cent after the first four weeks of trade. The opening week had the lowest offerings since Bendigo Bank Agribusiness records began in 1995, with the following weeks continuing the trend of low offerings prior to a 60 per cent jump in bales offered for the final week before the recess.
