“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know
about what they imagine they can design”
– Friedrich Hayek
25 Feb 2026 : the State Minister for Agriculture announced a $3.3m to Beaufort River Meats as part of the live export transition.
25 Feb 2026 : Beaufort River puts out a press release announcing it was shutting its doors “due to ongoing livestock shortages. The decision follows continued supply constraints that have significantly reduced processing volumes and impacted operational efficiency. Despite efforts to manage throughput and secure consistent livestock supply, current conditions have made it unsustainable to continue operations at this time.”
11 May 2024 “This presents an opportunity for more processing to occur onshore in Western Australia, which will mean more local jobs.”
30 May 2024 Murray Watt then Federal Minister for Agriculture said the live export closure “paves the way for more jobs and value adding through onshore processing.”
1 July 2024 “opening up opportunities for more jobs and value adding in Western Australia.”
There is a grim consistency in the way this government in Canberra approaches “transitions.” Whether it is sheep in Western Australia or electrons on the grid, the formula is familiar: announce the end of something that works, talk up the glittering opportunities ahead, then act surprised when capacity falls and prices rise.
Since coming to power, the Federal Labor Government has presided over a sharp contraction in Western Australia’s sheep flock. Industry figures show numbers falling from roughly 12 million head in 2022 to around 8 million today — a drop of about one-third in just four years. This is not seasonal noise. It is structural shrinkage happening in real time.
Processing has not been immune. Where WA once had a modest but functional spread of sheep abattoir capacity, the system is now visibly thinner. Just as the State Agriculture Minister was proudly announcing $20 million in grants to help farmers and processors adjust, Beaufort River Meats quietly announced it was moving into care and maintenance due to ongoing sheep shortages. Timing, as they say, is everything.
While this may be music to the ears of the nation’s vegan lobby, it is rather less cheerful for ordinary consumers. When you deliberately tighten supply in a high fixed-cost industry, the outcome is not mysterious. Lamb gets dearer. Sunday roasts do not get cheaper when the flock shrinks as export markets are closed.
What makes this episode particularly instructive is how neatly it mirrors the Commonwealth’s much larger energy transition.
On the electricity front, seven of Australia’s remaining coal-fired power stations now have retirement dates pencilled in for the coming decade, while the Commonwealth has committed well north of $40 billion to the renewable build-out that was supposed to deliver cheaper power. So far, households scanning their power bills might be forgiven for wondering exactly which part is meant to be the cheap bit.
In both sheep and energy, the pattern is familiar: meddle in an established, efficient sector of the economy, promise the replacement will be better for all, desperately throw money at the sector when the inevitable decline sets in, then spin the end result as a triumph of careful planning.
At this rate, the great Australian tradition of a Sunday lamb roast enjoyed in the cool comfort of affordable air-conditioning risks becoming something rather more modest — perhaps an imported ham sandwich eaten to the steady thump of the ceiling fan.
Related stories: Live exports
