Trevor Whittington, CEO WAFarmers

I’ve just returned from a two-day National Farmers’ Federation members meeting in Canberra and the mood is dark. It is increasingly clear this Government has little affection for the productive capitalist class and is hunting for revenue, regulation and control from wherever it can extract it.

If you ever wondered why so few of our political class appear genuinely effective, the answer can largely be explained by three principles that govern human organisations everywhere: the Pareto Principle (1890s), Price’s Law (1960) and the Peter Principle (1969).

This federal Budget reveals something far more significant than another round of tax fights over capital gains, family trusts and negative gearing. It reveals who modern Labor now governs for. 

Last week I wrote that Budget Number Ten would tell us everything we needed to know ... it’s worse than expected. For all the Government’s talk about farm resilience, diversification and food security, when it came time to fund the department that actually underpins those things, the treasure chest was empty.

In the 1930s, Winston Churchill warned that Europe was sleepwalking into danger. Across the chamber, Neville Chamberlain insisted all would be well. “Peace in our time,” he said—a comforting line, right up until Hitler crossed into Poland. We are seeing a modern version of that same delusion play out today.

At a time when Australian farmers are facing a major fertiliser squeeze, Canberra has decided the priority is not supply, not affordability, and not domestic resilience—but underwriting a green ammonia export dream ... while farmers are being told to accept decile 10 nitrogen prices, or even decile zero availability, taxpayers—including those same farmers in the years they make money—are being lined up to help fast track a plant that will help foreign farmers access fertiliser.

Some of you may have read my previous articles on Summit’s Force Majeure Gamble: A Pattern Emerges and CSBP’s Force Majeure Gamble ... The response on social media has been staggering, with the algorithms going off the charts — which tells me I have hit a nerve. Even more interesting are the stories of urea...

Australia has just signed up to a free trade agreement with the European Union, which is being sold—predictably—as a great leap forward for the inner city consumer ... Out in the paddock, however, the mood is less celebratory. Because the small print tells a more familiar story. Australian once again, signed a deal where farmers pay the costs.

As the Iran–USA–Israel conflict ripples through global fertiliser markets, Western Australian farmers are discovering just how fragile their supply chains really are. At the centre of it is CSBP, which has reached for the force majeure clause in its contracts to step away from its contractual obligations.

Urea hit the equivalent of $2,800 a tonne in today’s dollars back in 1974. That’s not a typo—and it’s not ancient history either. To understand how that happens, you need to start with geography. Roughly a third of global fertiliser trade by sea—not production, trade—passes through the Strait of Hormuz.