Trevor Whittington, CEO WAFarmers

On writing this, urea had slipped back below $1,000 a tonne and oil had fallen under US$90 a barrel. The headlines had moved on, the politicians were congratulating themselves, and the market was once again telling us that everything was under control. Problem solved. Move along. Nothing to see here. Except that is exactly what people said after the last fertiliser shock, and the one before that, and the one before that.

Nearly two years after the live export ban became law, farmers have been making decisions while the transition industry is still planning the transition. That simple fact tells you almost everything you need to know about the live sheep transition.

One of the more interesting developments in modern journalism is that reporters increasingly seem to know the answer before they begin asking the questions ... The problem with Ros Thomas's recent Weekend Australian feature on paraquat and Parkinson's disease is that by the time you reach the end, you are left with the feeling that the destination was already known before the journey began.

I’ve just returned from a two-day National Farmers’ Federation members meeting in Canberra and the mood is dark. It is increasingly clear this Government has little affection for the productive capitalist class and is hunting for revenue, regulation and control from wherever it can extract it.

If you ever wondered why so few of our political class appear genuinely effective, the answer can largely be explained by three principles that govern human organisations everywhere: the Pareto Principle (1890s), Price’s Law (1960) and the Peter Principle (1969).

This federal Budget reveals something far more significant than another round of tax fights over capital gains, family trusts and negative gearing. It reveals who modern Labor now governs for. 

Last week I wrote that Budget Number Ten would tell us everything we needed to know ... it’s worse than expected. For all the Government’s talk about farm resilience, diversification and food security, when it came time to fund the department that actually underpins those things, the treasure chest was empty.

In the 1930s, Winston Churchill warned that Europe was sleepwalking into danger. Across the chamber, Neville Chamberlain insisted all would be well. “Peace in our time,” he said—a comforting line, right up until Hitler crossed into Poland. We are seeing a modern version of that same delusion play out today.

At a time when Australian farmers are facing a major fertiliser squeeze, Canberra has decided the priority is not supply, not affordability, and not domestic resilience—but underwriting a green ammonia export dream ... while farmers are being told to accept decile 10 nitrogen prices, or even decile zero availability, taxpayers—including those same farmers in the years they make money—are being lined up to help fast track a plant that will help foreign farmers access fertiliser.

Some of you may have read my previous articles on Summit’s Force Majeure Gamble: A Pattern Emerges and CSBP’s Force Majeure Gamble ... The response on social media has been staggering, with the algorithms going off the charts — which tells me I have hit a nerve. Even more interesting are the stories of urea...