After three years of consecutive growth, the Australian sheep flock is set to decrease by 2.9 per cent to 76,500,000 in 2024, according to the latest Sheep Industry Projections from Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA).
During the 2020-2022 rebuild phase, producer focus on productivity and genetics has led to impressive marking rates across the sheep flock.
However, the shift from beneficial weather conditions to average conditions in 2023 led to elevated turn-off of unproductive breeding stock, resulting in a 46.7 per cent lift to sheep slaughter.
According to Stephen Bignell, Manager of Market Information at MLA, as the sheep turn-off will mostly be limited to older, unproductive ewes, this year’s lamb cohort is expected to remain solid, but slightly smaller, than previous years.
“The current resilience of the sheep flock means that high lamb slaughter will have a less intense impact on the national flock size than in previous maintenance periods.
Meaning that there will be a decrease in overall flock numbers, but not as dramatic as in comparative years,” Mr Bignell said.
“After 2024, the flock is expected to stabilise and remain above the ten-year average.”
Slaughter and production are projected to peak in 2024, causing record supply of Australian sheepmeat into the global market.
This comes after Australia produced the most lamb on record in the calendar year 2023, with 599,461 tonnes of lamb being produced in 2023, putting it 11.6 per cent higher than 2022, which was another record year.
As the largest exporter of sheepmeat, high Australian production will increase globally traded sheepmeat volumes.
“Economic resilience in the United States and emerging markets will drive demand for lamb, while the outlook for consumer demand in China remains uncertain,” Mr Bignell said.
“Regardless, a shortage of competitor proteins will encourage imports of sheepmeat in high protein consumption markets.”
Lamb production is set to break a new record in 2024, beating the 2023 record.
This article appeared in the Allora Advertiser, 5 March 2024.
