Dust storms pose a significant threat to the environment, public health and the economy.

With predictions of an El Niño, increased drought and the subsequent lack of groundcover vegetation, scientists forecast Narrandera and other parts of NSW can expect an elevated risk of dust storms in the next few years.

In this article, we will delve into research insights from our scientists, discussing the impact of dust storms, the importance of land management practices, and measures that can be taken to prepare for these natural phenomena.

The Bureau of Meteorology has shifted to an El Niño alert, indicating a 70 per cent chance of El Niño formation. These events typically suppress rainfall in eastern Australia during winter and spring, setting the stage for drought conditions.

The next three months show a reduced rainfall forecast across NSW, heightening the likelihood of drought and subsequent dust storms.

In addition, air quality scientists have been keeping a close eye on satellite imagery looking at the recovery of winter groundcover vegetation in the west of the state. Typically groundcover recovery during winter averages around 40 per cent, but this season it is shaping up to be around half that, which is very similar to 2016 and 2017, the preceding years to the 2017–20 drought.

There is an opportunity to prepare and take preventative and adaptative actions against the impending increase in dust storms. After monitoring dust storms in rural NSW for over 30 years, tracking dust through several major droughts, scientists have learnt that NSW has 18 months to prepare for a dust storm.

Monitoring dust levels through the rural air quality monitoring network can serve as an early warning system, highlighting to land managers the need to take action when dust levels rise and ground cover decreases. By responding promptly and implementing proactive measures the impact of dust storms can be minimised.

The implementation of good land management practices can help minimise the impact of these events. For example, destocking grazing animals in winter to encourage groundcover regeneration can be crucial, as well as reducing excessive grazing during hot and dry periods.

Recently published research showed that landholders can mitigate the risk of dust storms and protect their valuable topsoil by reducing animal grazing and maintaining a minimum level of groundcover of at least 50 per cent.

Winter rainfall drives pasture growth, particularly in southern NSW and while the landscape seems favourable currently, with a significant increase in ground cover compared to previous years projections indicate a lower growth this winter.

This scenario mirrors patterns seen in the last drought, suggesting a potential drop in groundcover heading into next summer. Less vegetation leads to increased frequency and severity of dust storms.

For cropping country, leaving stubble in place instead of burning it off protects the soil and reduces the likelihood of dust storms. Landholders adopting such practises are not only safeguarding their properties but also providing a significant public service. 

This article appeared in the Narrandera Argus, 20 July 2023.