The population of planet Earth is increasing. But the area of the planet is not growing. Sooner or later, this will make famine a mortal threat to the population of many countries. Scientific and technological progress will not save everyone. After all, increasing the efficiency of agricultural labour can solve the problem only when the area of agricultural land is sufficient for this. Therefore, food wars will become part of the future of humanity. The first such war is already underway. This is the war in Ukraine!

In 1400, the population of planet Earth was about 400 thousand people.¹  In 2020, this figure was 7.9 billion people. In 2050, the population could reach 8.6 billion. And in 2100 – 11.2 billion people.² All these people must eat to live. So far, increasing food consumption has been achieved by increasing the efficiency of agricultural labour and the area of agricultural land. For example, from 1250 to 1450 in the territory Europe average yields of grain crops were 7 to 15 bushels per acre. But in the middle of the 21st century this value was 60 bushels per acre.³ In 1250 croplands accounted for 5 per cent of the total land area on the planet. In 2020, croplands accounted for 25 per cent of the total land area.*⁴

But sooner or later the free lands will run out. And this will reduce agricultural productivity growth. But the worst thing is that without sufficient agricultural land, the importance of technology will decrease. Therefore, the area of controlled agricultural land is of primary importance for the future survival of every country. This value is so great that in the future humanity will wage wars in order to gain control over arable land.

A garden in Ukraine, 20 miles from the fighting with the Russian army. The photos show a blooming pear and apple tree, and arable land ready for sowing.
Photos: Pavel Kuliuk

This is what political scientists interviewed by Australian Rural & Regional News say. We asked political scientists one question: “Are wars over food and agricultural land possible in the near future?”

Here are the answers from the professionals.

“As populations continue to boom and the climate continues to change, people all over the world have been and will be faced with scarcity issues relating to food and clean water. As these basic needs for survival become harder to find, it would not surprise me to see wars fought over fertile land where food can be grown and produced. When larger percentages of populations across the world can no longer sustain themselves, their own governments will be forced to take action to provide for them, and that action is likely to come in the form of violent conflict. These conflicts are not only possible, but likely, given the rapid decline in overall quality of life as food and clean water resources begin to disappear”,- said Director at Mercury Public Affairs, Aaron Siegel.

“Yes, I believe wars over food and agricultural land are possible in the near future. Several factors can contribute to this possibility such as population growth, climate change, water scarcity, land grabbing, and geo-political tensions. These factors underscore the potential for conflicts arising from competition over food and agricultural land. We need to work on sustainable farming practices, equitable resource distribution, and international cooperation now to mitigate these risks”,- said Policy and Law Strategist, Sabrina Newby.

“Where there is a need for food and the need for land for housing, there will be conflict”,- said President and Co-Founder of RBI Strategies and Research, Rick Ridder.

“I suppose, how you define “wars” and “near future.” If by “wars” you mean specifically nation-states against other nation-states competing for agricultural land, it depends. While I generally do believe that the age of imperialism is over, we’ve seen that developing nuclear powers like Russia and China are very interested in acquiring land (Ukraine and Tibet, respectively), albeit for more political reasons than food and agriculture land acquisition. Climate change and rising sea levels do threaten to destabilize world cooperation among both nuclear and non-nuclear powers, and skirmishes and battles for food between competing groups in areas where food is scarce always have a high probability. I cannot comment on how soon that could or would happen”,- said Principal Strategist Hill & State Strategies, Alyssa N. Batchelor, M.S.

What benefits will Russia receive from conquering Ukraine?

Taking into account the possibility of “wars over food” in the future, today’s war, the war in Ukraine takes on a completely different meaning. Although the source of the conflict was political differences, the result of the war allows us to call it the “First Agricultural War”. Great agricultural potential Ukraine allows us to do this. The agricultural potential of this country is so great that it can become the main reward for the winner.

Ukraine is one of the five largest producers of nine agricultural commodities. This is presented in this table.⁵

No wonder. Ukraine has a very large area of agricultural land. This country ranks 6th in terms of arable land area in the world. There are 10,716,9603.94 acres (43.37 million hectares) of arable land on the territory of Ukraine. This is 2.31 per cent of all arable land in the world. In terms of the ratio of arable land to population, Ukraine is in fifth place in the world. Ukraine ranks first in the world in terms of the ratio of arable land to the total area of the territory. 74.82 per cent of the territory of Ukraine is arable land!⁶

In terms of total agricultural production, Ukraine ranks 17th in the world.⁷

No wonder. Ukraine has a very large area of agricultural land. This country ranks 6th in terms of arable land area in the world. There are 10,716,9603.94 acres (43.37 million hectares) of arable land on the territory of Ukraine. This is 2.31 per cent of all arable land in the world. In terms of the ratio of arable land to population, Ukraine is in fifth place in the world. Ukraine ranks first in the world in terms of the ratio of arable land to the total area of the territory. 74.82 per cent of the territory of Ukraine is arable land!⁶

In terms of total agricultural production, Ukraine ranks 17th in the world.⁷

According to the table, in 2020, Ukraine produced agricultural products worth US$44.72 billion. This is approximately half of the total agricultural production in Russia, which ranks 6th in the ranking. That is, gaining control over the territory of Ukraine will give Russia the opportunity to increase agricultural production by almost half. This is a very good result, which is impossible under normal conditions. For example, Gross value added (GVA) by the agriculture industry in Australia from 2013 to 2022 did not increase. This indicator demonstrates multi-vector movement. 2022 saw a large decline compared to the year before. Detailed information is presented in the table.⁸

This highlights the benefits of owning the territory of Ukraine

Bottom line

In the current situation, conquering territory becomes the most effective means of increasing agricultural production. This is the most dangerous! It’s very tempting to do this. This is especially true for states that do not have access to new technologies and the ability to increase labour efficiency. For such states, killing and destroying are the only way to increase the amount of food. This is exactly what happened in ancient times. Modern agricultural wars are becoming a manifestation of regression, not evolution. Food wars will take humanity back to the Stone Age. The spread of this era began from the territory of Ukraine!

*Percentage of global ice-free land area

References

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_the_Middle_Ages
4. https://knowledge.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2018-06/GLO%20English_Ch2.pdf
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_producing_countries_of_agricultural_commodities
6. https://latifundist.com/novosti/47440-ukraina-voshla-v-top-10-stran-mira-za-ploshchadyu-pahotnyh-zemel
7. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1332343/the-leading-producers-of-agricultural-goods-worldwide/
8. https://www.statista.com/statistics/874367/australia-gross-value-added-agriculture-industry/