Bendigo Bank, Media Release, 14 April 2026
Recent rains have given Aussie farmers a valuable head start on sowing this season’s winter crop, but higher freight, fuel, and fertiliser costs are squeezing margins across the country, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness’ latest Monthly Commodity Update outlines.
A question mark hangs over whether the benefit of the rains will offset the impact of ongoing international instability, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Senior Manager Industry Insights, Eliza Redfern, said.
“A favourable bank of soil moisture means farmers can get their winter crops off to a strong start,” Ms Redfern said.
“However, the benefits of that welcome rain will potentially be overshadowed by elevated input costs in response to global events. Australian farmers will be tested in the coming months as they face of significant cost headwinds.”
Key insights:
Cost pressures drive tough decisions for horticultural producers
Rising costs are forcing difficult decisions for growers. A recent survey by AUSVEG found some vegetable growers are choosing to leave crops unharvested due to high costs, while a quarter of respondents intend to reduce future plantings, which will impact supply of autumn sown crops. Meanwhile, avocado and stone fruit sectors have attracted record export value in early 2026, although this was offset by lacklustre table grape and dried fruit exports.
Dairy margins squeezed by higher costs
Australian dairy farmers are facing a margin squeeze on multiple fronts. Rising input costs and new season farmgate milk prices are unlikely to greatly alleviate these pressures for producers. Looking ahead, a stabilising milk pool, strong global supply and higher processing costs will likely drive conservative opening prices for the 2026/27 season. Full season farmgate milk prices will likely land around this season’s esimate of $9.40/kg MS (southern indication).
Lamb and mutton prices continue to strengthen
Underpinned by tight supply, lamb and mutton prices have continued to lift. With Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) revising flock estimates down 9.5 per cent from the 2023 peak, this period of lower supply and elevated prices is expected to continue.
Northern wheat and barley markets lead domestic prices
Dry conditions and reluctant sellers have tightened nearby wheat and barley supply in northern regions, pushing Brisbane and Newcastle prices above southern markets. While this has created short-lived pricing opportunities, enthusiasm for new season planting is being constrained by a surge in input costs.
Cattle markets face multiple pressures
Cattle prices were weighed down in March by the rising cost of transport, a dry weather outlook, and higher supply at local markets. The prospect of a 55 per cent tariff being triggered in China by the end of May is also softening the outlook for export demand across the second half of the year, placing further downward pressure on prices.
Mixed results for Australian wool prices
After a period of successive increases, the wool market saw some price corrections in a volatile March. While the conflict in the Middle East is a concern for input and freight costs, the market continues to be supported by strong, steady demand from Australia’s major trading partner, China.
Read the full Monthly Commodity Update – April 2026 report here.
