Donald Trump’s return to trade protectionism isn’t just a blow to foreign farmers in countries facing U.S. tariffs—it’s a direct hit to American agriculture itself, a reality the president seems willing to overlook.

As the U.S. escalates tariffs on key trading partners like China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, these nations are retaliating strategically—targeting Trump’s biggest supporters and one of the most powerful lobbying forces in America: its farmers.

This isn’t new. The last time Trump played hardball on trade, U.S. farmers paid the price—losing export markets, seeing commodity prices crash, and ultimately forcing the government to step in with massive bailouts just to keep them afloat. Now, with Trump reviving these same policies, farmers are staring down a familiar road—one that leads not to prosperity, but to another painful cycle of losses, government handouts, and shattered global trade relationships.

Perhaps the most striking example of the damage caused by Trump’s last trade war is what happened to the U.S. soybean industry. In 2018, China retaliated against U.S. tariffs by slapping a 25 per cent duty on American soybeans, causing exports to China to plummet from $14 billion in 2017 to just $3.1 billion in 2019. In response, China turned to Brazil, which quickly ramped up soybean production and infrastructure to meet the soaring demand.

Even after the Phase One Trade Deal between the U.S. and China led to tariff reductions, the damage had been done. By the end of Trump’s first term in 2020, Brazil was producing 126 million metric tons of soybeans. By 2024, that number had surged to 160 million metric tons. Today, Brazil dominates global soybean exports, with China purchasing over 70 per cent of its output—a direct result of trade disruptions initiated under Trump.

The U.S. pork industry suffered a similar fate. When China and Mexico, two of the largest buyers of American pork, retaliated with tariffs, U.S. exports collapsed. Farmers were left with a glut of supply and falling prices, while European and Brazilian pork producers stepped in to fill the gap, securing long-term contracts and permanently expanding their foothold in these key markets. Even when China later increased U.S. pork imports due to an African swine fever outbreak, American producers had already lost ground.

Dairy farmers were not spared either. Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. cheese, responded to Trump’s trade war with 25 per cent tariffs, leading to a 30 per cent drop in exports in just one year. Canada followed suit with its own countermeasures, sending shockwaves through the U.S. dairy sector. Milk prices plunged, family farms shuttered, and struggling producers were left with no choice but to depend on government bailouts.

The lasting effects of these trade policies are still being felt. While other agricultural powerhouses seized new opportunities, American farmers were left playing catch-up in markets they once dominated.

Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef forced China to look elsewhere, dramatically increasing imports from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. Australian beef exports to China surged, not because of market forces, but due to a trade war that reshaped global supply chains.

If there’s one undeniable truth in agriculture, it’s that lost markets are difficult and slow to reclaim. Trade wars don’t happen in isolation—competitors are always ready to step in and fill the gaps left by disrupted supply.

Brazil’s soybean farmers capitalised on the U.S.-China dispute, expanding production and infrastructure to cement their position as the world’s top supplier. European and Brazilian pork producers seized the opportunity to secure long-term contracts with major buyers like China and Mexico. Australian and Canadian beef exporters expanded their market share while American producers found themselves locked out. Even Argentina’s corn growers benefited from China’s shift in suppliers, securing deals that might have once belonged to U.S. farmers.

For these countries, Trump’s trade war wasn’t a setback—it was an economic windfall. While American farmers struggled with lost sales, government bailouts, and falling prices, their foreign competitors stepped in, secured new markets, and never looked back. When American farmers suffered under Trump’s trade war, the federal government stepped in with $28 billion in bailout payments between 2018 and 2020—a figure equivalent to an entire year’s worth of Australia’s total agricultural exports. Yet, despite these massive subsidies, many farmers never fully recovered their lost income or market access.

Ironically, around 80 per cent of the revenue from tariffs on Chinese imports was funnelled back to farmers—essentially making Trump’s trade war a self-inflicted wound, where farmers paid the price and taxpayers footed the bill.

The fundamental flaw in Trump’s tariff strategy is that while it aims to protect industries like steel and automobiles, it inevitably backfires. The countries hit with U.S. tariffs retaliate strategically, targeting Trump’s own base—Midwestern farmers. The result? Trump scrambles to compensate those affected, but no bailout can force China to abandon Brazil’s soybeans or persuade Mexico to favor U.S. pork over European alternatives. Once trade relationships shift, they rarely return.

Even Zippy Duvall, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation, has sounded the alarm, recently stating that U.S. farmers have lost money on “almost every major crop planted” over the last three years. He warned that “adding even more costs and reducing markets for American agricultural goods could create an economic burden some farmers may not be able to bear”. After years of rebuilding trade relationships, another round of tariffs risks undoing that progress, leaving American agriculture in an even weaker position.

With 3.4 million farmers nationwide, U.S. agriculture is not just an industry—it’s a political powerhouse. In the lead-up to the 2023 Farm Bill, agricultural lobbying groups spent over $150 million to secure more than $428 billion in subsidies, crop insurance, and biofuels—reinforcing their place as one of Washington’s most formidable forces.

If you want to know where Trump’s next tariff war will lead, just watch how American farmers react when the retaliatory tariffs start to bite.