When the facts change: In praise of politicians who pivot

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“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?” That famous line, attributed to John Maynard Keynes, ought to be stitched into the lapels of every politician wandering through Parliament House with a talking point in one hand and a Twitter poll in the other. For out here in the Wheatbelt, we know better than most that stubbornness is a vice when the wind shifts and the sheep are heading for the neighbour’s crop.

Which brings us to the newly minted leader of the opposition, Sussan Ley. Yes, the same Sussan Ley who once tabled a private member’s bill to end the live sheep trade. That’s right. A shearer’s cook turned pilot turned air traffic controller turned sheep farmer, turned tax accountant turned politician who became the leader of the opposition. An impressive CV compared to most of the political class in the government who have only ever worked for the unions or other politicians.

She might not be the best political performer and in fact could be accused of being the last man standing (women can be men or so some still believe) but to her credit, she’s shown signs of being a politician who—shock horror—can change her mind. A rare breed, that should be carefully watched as it means they are still evolving as human beings, another unusual trait within our political class.

Farmers across WA may still wince at the memory of Ley’s attempt to do what Labor has done which is legislate to end the live trade. Her private member’s bill was clearly cooked up in the kitchen of someone who farmed in the world of Malcome Frazer’s Victorian landed aristocracy where water was on tap and the markets were next door.  But the Sussan of 2025 now sings a different tune: the trade is safe, the trade is viable, the trade is here to stay, in other words when she got around to hearing the facts she changed her mind.  Or maybe when the political facts caught up with her she changed her mind. Either way I don’t care the fact is she changed her mind and that is a good thing.

Now I’ve got a soft spot for political repentance. It beats the alternative—leaders who cling to their duds with the desperation of a dog chasing the wrong ute. Take Anthony Albanese, who’s spent the last three years yapping up the wrong tree of 82 per cent renewables by 2030. It might have made sense when the ink was drying on the Paris Agreement and Chris Bowen was still being mistaken for an energy economist. But today? The engineers are nervous, the grid’s cracking, the turbines are rusting before they’re spinning, and industry is eyeing the exit.

Yet still, the Prime Minister doubles down, even as common sense and megawatt shortfalls say otherwise. If Albanese was a sheepdog, he’d be chasing butterflies while the mob disappears over the hill. And unlike Ley, he doesn’t seem to own a rearview mirror.

History’s littered with examples of both kinds—the reformers who pivot when required, and the ideologues who march themselves and their countries into the abyss. Let’s not forget John Howard, who went from anti-GST to its chief evangelist once he realised that real reform requires politican courage not doing a Dutton and standing for Nothin.

Tony Abbott the mad monk, definitely a man of convinction, walked away from the catholic church, so he started with a record of changing his mind.  As a politician he knew when to park his opposition and change direction to his politican credit he walked away from his opposition to paid parental leave long enough to make a pitch for women voters which won him the highest office in the land. Barack Obama went from publicly opposing same-sex marriage to embracing it as the tide of public opinion swept in a new era.

And now we have the ultimate non change my mind politician who flips from tariffs at any cost to make America Great Again to the tweet of today that victory has been achieved and tariffs are off the table at least for today.

These are not stories of leadership; they’re cautionary tales, it’s important for politiicans to be able to change their mind when presented with the facts. Dogmatic politicians are dangerous people as they As Putin is doing to Russia or Albanese is doing to Australia plough on whatever the cost.

So where does Ley sit in this pantheon of political pivots and policy blowouts? Somewhere in the middle, I’d wager. She started her career like a young sheep dog chasing cars, but somewhere along the way she learnt what a mob looks like and, more importantly, how to read the mob. That’s more than can be said for the current Prime Minister, who seems to think that shouting “net zero!” louder will magically conjure up dispatchable baseload power and keep BHP from heading to Texas.

Now let’s be honest. The Liberals have a shocking habit of chewing through leaders faster than a dog with its dinner. How long Ley lasts will depend on whether she can convince the Liberal Party that she can read the mob more that she stands for more than just not being Albanese. But if she can channel a bit of Keynes and show she’s willing to correct course when the numbers turn red, there might be hope yet.

Because what this country needs right now—what the bush needs, what the grid needs, what small business and big ag need—is less ideological entrenchment and more humble recalibration. We need leaders who can say, without a trace of spin, “I was wrong. The facts have changed. So have I.”

And if that sounds like weakness to the Twitter class or the ABC inner city soy latte commentariat then so be it, let them live up their trees, because the mob doesn’t care what the elite think, it’s what works in the real world that counts. What they want to know is that their political leadership is not leading them off yet another cliff.

So here’s to the politicians who pivot, who back down, who U-turn, who learn. Here’s to those who trade moral grandstanding for practical outcomes. And here’s to Sussan Ley—for changing her mind. Let’s just hope she’s learnt her lesson.

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