Third year of growth across Australia’s major export markets

Rural Bank, Media Release, 12 September 2023

Rural Bank’s Australian Agricultural Exports Report 2022/23 has found that export values reached a record high in 2022/23, driven by the 2022 winter crop. Australia’s top 13 export markets recorded year-on-year growth with the top 12 all achieving record highs, led by China, with Japan and the US retaining their places as Australian agriculture’s second and third most valuable markets.

Export value was almost 50 per cent above the five-year average, totalling nearly $80 billion, a rise of $12.5 billion from the previous year and building on an $18 billion increase in 2021/22, however, the forecast for a smaller crop in 2023 and lower prices for most commodities will see export values return closer to average in 2023/4.

Andrew Smith, Rural Bank Head of Agribusiness Development said: “Growth in export value was primarily driven by rises in the value of broadacre crops and cotton, with consecutive years of record-setting crops and high commodity prices driving the extraordinary level of export value seen in 2022/23”.

“The value of Australian agricultural exports in 2023/24 is forecast to fall below the records set in the past two years but will still be the third most valuable year on record. The anticipated decline will be primarily due to a reduction in crop area planted and yield, with current estimates suggesting a 34 per cent decline in winter crop production compared to last season.

“A particular bright spot was cotton exports which more than doubled in value to $4.9 billion, up $2.7 billion from the year before. Increased beef production helped drive a rise of $726 million in the value of cattle industry exports and sugar exports also added a further $650 million or 32 per cent on top of the strong rise recorded in 2021/22”, Mr Smith said.

Diversification into export markets slows: The report also found that Australian agriculture did not diversify further into export markets for 2022/23 but managed to hold onto gains made in the prior two years. Global appetite for Australian produce may be supported by a lower Australian dollar, notwithstanding consumers in key markets facing tougher economic conditions which are weighing on export prices and not expected to improve in the near-term.

“China was the largest growth market in dollar terms for the second year in a row. The value of exports to China rose $3.1 billion or almost 23 per cent in 2022/23 to a record high of $16.6 billion, led by a 66 per cent or $1.5 billion increase in wheat exports and with beef, almonds and cotton also recording growth”, Mr Smith said.

Boost from Vietnam

“The substantial increase in the value of wheat exports helped to drive growth of over $1 billion or more across the Vietnamese, South Korean, Indonesian and Thailand markets with Vietnam recording the largest increase of more than 50 per cent to $1.8 billion, thanks to strong growth in both cotton and wheat exports.

“In terms of export value by Australia’s states, Victoria maintained its position as number one in 2022/23, with Western Australia’s rapid rise in exports knocking New South Wales out of second place for the first time in five years.

“Favourable cropping conditions also supported export growth in Queensland, and South Australia. In Tasmania, dairy exports declined but this was offset by the export value of seafood which increased by $44.6 million. The Northern Territory saw an export value decline of five per cent, driven lower by a 13.5 per cent reduction in cattle export value which accounts for 95 per cent of NT exports”, Mr Smith concluded.

Australian agricultural exports 2022/23 fast facts

State by state snapshot

Growth in agricultural export value was recorded across the majority of Australian states in 2022/23, with only Tasmania and the Northern Territory seeing declines. States with large cropping industries saw the most significant growth in export value, with Western Australia experiencing the largest growth. Growth in Western Australia’s agriculture exports saw them overtake New South Wales to become the second largest exporter behind Victoria. 

• Victoria retained its position as Australia’s largest agricultural exporter in 2022/23. The state saw a rise in export value of $1.3 billion (+7.7 per cent) to a record high of $18.7 billion and accounted for 24.2 per cent of the national agricultural export value. Crops, horticulture, and beef were the major drivers of growth for Victorian exports in 2022/23.
• Western Australia was the largest growth state in 2022/23, with a rise in export value of $4 billion (+33.2 per cent) to a record $16.2 billion. This was driven primarily by crop exports which rose by $3.6 million (+42.6 per cent), which follows a rise of $3.8 million (+78.3 per cent) the previous year. The value of Western Australia’s agricultural exports was also supported by growth in seafood, sheep, and beef exports.
• New South Wales saw a rise in export value in 2022/23 of $830 million (+6.6 per cent) to a record $13.4 billion. However, the uplift in value was not enough for the state to maintain the position as Australia’s second largest agricultural exporter, being overtaken by Western Australia. The rise in export value from New South Wales was driven by growth in crop and wool exports.
• Queensland retained its position as the fourth largest exporter in 2022/23, after falling from third place in 2020/21. Queensland’s agriculture exports grew by $1.9 billion (+17.8 per cent) to $12.5 billion in 2022/23. The state’s export value was driven higher by strong crop and cattle industry exports. Cattle remain the largest source of agricultural export value for Queensland, accounting for 57.1 per cent of the state’s exports in 2022/23.
• South Australia’s agricultural export value eclipsed the record set in 2021/22, rising $1.4 billion (+19.4 per cent) to $8.9 billion. Like Western Australia, South Australia’s agricultural exports are mainly driven by cropping, which benefitted from another strong year in 2022/23. South Australia’s crop exports lifted by $1.4 billion (+35.6 per cent) to $5.2 billion. Wine remained the state’s second largest export industry but saw a fourth consecutive year of decline in 2022/23.
• Tasmania’s agricultural exports fell by $16.9 million (+1.6 per cent) to $1 billion in 2022/23. The fall in value was led by the state’s dairy industry, which saw exports fall $71.5 million (-25.8 per cent) following a $113 million increase (+68.8 per cent) the previous year. Tasmania’s agricultural exports were supported by growth in seafood and horticulture exports, which lifted $44.6 million and $12.1 million respectively in 2022/23.
• Northern Territory’s agricultural exports declined for a third consecutive year in 2022/23, falling $20.4 million (-5 per cent) to $392 million. This was the lowest value of agricultural exports for the territory since 2013/14. The Northern Territory’s agricultural exports have continued to decline due to a reduction in cattle exports, which fell by $54.5 million (-13.5 per cent) in 2022/23.

Industry by industry snapshot

Cattle overview

• The value of Australian cattle industry exports increased $725.9 million (+5.9 per cent) in 2022/23 to a total of $13.12 billion.
• Export value was driven by increased domestic production and stronger demand from China and the US.
• Australian beef exports are expected to record a lift in value for 2023/24 due to further production growth and strong international demand, in particular from the US who will be continuing their herd rebuild.

Cropping overview

• The value of Australian cropping exports increased $7.08 billion (+29.6 per cent) in 2022/23 to a total of $30.99 billion.
• Record production for most Australian crops in 2022/23 was complimented with a new record average export price.
• A decline in cropping production brought about by below average seasonal rainfall will see the value of Australian cropping exports fall in 2023/24.

Dairy overview

• Australian dairy export value fell $96.5 million (-3.0 per cent) to $3.07 billion in 2022/23, the third highest value on record.
• Strong export value was driven by record average export prices but characterised by reduced volumes.
• Easing global prices, increased global production but high Australian farmgate milk prices will see Australian dairy export value decline in the 2023/24 season.

Horticulture overview

• The value of Australian horticultural exports rose by $277.9 million (+11.1 per cent) to $2.78 billion in 2022/23.
• The jump in the value of exports was primarily driven by increased grape and nut exports amidst rising production volumes.
• The value of Australian horticultural exports is forecast to rise further in 2023/24. This is driven by strong production forecasts across key export varieties and improving quality.

Sheep overview

• The value of Australian sheep industry exports fell $104.9 million (-2.1 per cent) in 2022/23 to a total of $4.79 billion.
• Export value was driven lower by weakened prices due to increased supply and softer consumer demand.
• Australian sheep industry exports are expected to see a slight decline in value again in 2023/24, as increases in production will be offset by lower prices.

Wool overview

• The value of Australian wool exports fell $73.8 million (-2.3 per cent) in 2022/23 to a total of $3.2 billion.
• Export value was driven lower as weaker demand led to lower prices which more than offset an increase in export volume.
• Wool exports are set to decline in value again in 2023/24 due to lower prices and a minor production decline.

Rural Bank’s Australian Agricultural Export 2022/23 report focuses on the value and volume of Australian agriculture to major global markets on a national, state, and commodity level.

You can view the report with all the details and market movements here in the Knowledge and Insights section of the Rural Bank website: Rural Bank Australian Agriculture Trade 2022/23.

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