Sarah Herrmann, Yorke Peninsula Country Times

After the federal election on Saturday, May 3, the Australian Electoral Commission is conducting a three-candidate preferred (3CP) count for the seat of Grey.

This count will determine which two of Liberal candidate Tom Venning, Labor candidate Karin Bolton and independent candidate Anita Kuss are the true frontrunners, and therefore eligible for the two-candidate preferred count.

University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of politics Clement Macintyre said, if minor party voters had preferenced independent candidate Anita Kuss above the major parties, she could potentially leapfrog Labor’s Karin Bolton into second place.

“The expectation is the Trumpet of Patriots, the Nationals, Family First and One Nation votes are probably going to flow to the Liberal Party, but some of them might go to the independent,” Prof. Macintyre said.

“Let’s imagine 6000 One Nation voters gave their second preference to the independent, and 3000 gave theirs to the Liberal Party, that would push the independent past Labor.

“We know when we get down to three left, the three are going to be Venning, Bolton and Kuss, but if the independent gets just in front of Labor by 100 votes, then Labor’s the last one eliminated, and the bulk of the Labor preferences may go to the independent.

“If Kuss stays at third, she’s the last candidate eliminated and probably 50 per cent of her preferences will go to the Liberals and it’ll make it a very safe Liberal seat.”

Speaking last Thursday, May 8, Prof. Macintyre said his prediction was that Mr Venning would remain the frontrunner, with Ms Bolton likely to remain in second place.

He said 3CP counts were becoming more common due to the rise of independents.

“Instead of a stand-off between the Liberal and Labor parties, now we’ve got strong independents coming in and it sometimes throws a spanner in the works in terms of predicting it,” he said.

The 3CP count is a stepping stone and, once it is completed, the AEC will resume the two-candidate preferred (2CP) count. The 2CP count between Mr Venning and Ms Bolton will remain relevant if they emerge as the leading candidates following the 3CP count.

Prof. Macintyre said Grey was receiving national attention for a seat long considered politically safe.

“For years, Grey’s not been a seat that anyone from outside it looked at with great interest,” he said.

“Suddenly Grey is partly in the national spotlight and all eyes will be on it.”

At the time of going to print, the AEC website showed 3CP had been completed for 62 of Grey’s 144 polling places as well as for declaration votes, amounting to 66,587 of the approximately 98,345 formal (valid) votes cast.

Venning led on 27,172, well ahead of Bolton (20,064) and Kuss (19,351).

Mr Venning said it appeared the 3CP count would not change his position as frontrunner for the seat.

“I remain cautiously optimistic about the result,” he said.

“The AEC has undertaken the 3CP count as part of its administrative process and continues to advise that Labor is likely to finish in second place.”

Ms Kuss told the YP Country Times she would not comment until all votes were counted; Ms Bolton also declined to comment.

The YPCT called the seat for Mr Venning in last week’s edition, based on his significant lead in the 2CP count, while noting that counting was ongoing.

Current 3CP figures are available at aec.gov.au/news/results-3cp.htm. Once completed, the updated 2CP results will be available at tallyroom.aec.gov.au.

This article appeared in Yorke Peninsula Country Times, 13 May 2025.