The advent of the latest elected monarch of the United States of America, one Donald J. Trump, whose main expertise, apart from top rating television shows, is property development perhaps provides Australia with the opportunity to finally make a decent deal with its great friend and ally, Uncle Sam.

There are some things which whoever is making this potential deal between the ‘roo and the bald-headed eagle on Australia’s behalf needs to keep in mind:

1. Donald J. Trump is a New York born and bred property developer – which explains everything else. The world is one large piece of real estate, divided into plots to be bought, sold, invaded, supported, pillaged – whatever is most opportune at the time;
2. United States policy, be it foreign policy or any other policy, is guided by one constant mantra – ‘whatever is in the best interests of the United States of America’. The USA is not alone at all in adhering to this philosophy, but do not be blinded by the distracting statements to do with world peace, democracy, leading peoples to freedom, etc;
3. The USA regards itself as the home of capitalism where business is a good thing, entrepreneurship is revered, and the art of the deal is worshipped.

Mr. Trump is just the latest exponent of American imperialism, but this time, and this is the opportunity for Australia, it is transactional imperialism. Much like his imperial predecessors in Ancient Rome, Mr. Trump is offering other states the protection of Pax Americana, provided they pay, or, if they won’t pay, they have a number of choices – be invaded, be bought (for a price determined by the purchaser) or left undefended to the mercies, or not, of a competitor empire. This appears to be what is happening in regard to Ukraine and would appear to be on the agenda for Taiwan – and everybody else.

It is apparent that Mr. Trump has no fixed idea of who are allies and who are enemies – and who just doesn’t matter (which seems to be most places). Mr. Trump also appears to believe that all supposed allies of the United States of America have been sponging off Uncle Sam for decades. Apparently turning up of one’s own accord, and at one’s own cost in blood and treasure, to support Uncle Sam in his entanglements in remote regions of the world far from one’s own and whose governments pose no discernible and real threat to one’s own country (see below) counts for nought in Mr. Trump’s world view. He may need to revise that view if a deal is to be struck.

So, what is a ‘good ally’ in Mr. Trump’s mind. It appears that a ‘good ally’ must fulfill these two criteria:

1. The country must spend more than 5 per cent of its GDP on defence;
2. The country must have a trade deficit with the USA.

Currently, it would appear that only Latvia meets these requirements, which is somewhat ironic as it is one of the most likely countries to face Russian aggression in the near future, an aggression perhaps being encouraged by Mr. Trump’s stated reluctance to stand by Europe in any conflict with Russia. Anyway, let not such realities interfere with a good theory of global transactional diplomacy developed on a beach in Florida. In such a world, trade (e.g. tariffs) and defence issues are actively intertwined. Australian politicians who argue that these two things should be kept separate in discussions with the latest emperor of the USA have missed the point entirely. In the current emperor’s view, they are all part of the same discussion. Indeed, they are the only parts of the discussion.

Australia is one of the few potential ‘good allies’ to fulfill one of these criteria – we have a trade deficit with the USA. Woo hoo! We hardly sell anything to the USA – great! Lucky day! All those years of failed AUSTRADE endeavours to sell more Australian ‘stuff’ in the USA have been worthwhile. The willingness of successive Australian governments to allow Australian innovators and inventions to evaporate from our shores and re-emerge in California have paid off! Yes, sir, we have been happily colonised. Step right up.

So, that leaves our percentage of GDP spent on defence. There may be more than one way to skin that particular cat. One such way could be to allocate a value to the support which Australia has provided to the United States over, let’s say, 80 years since W2 and the advent of the Cold War (which has got mighty hot on several occasions). Let’s see, just for starters:

1. Korean War engagement;
2. Vietnam War engagement (when virtually nobody else turned up);
3. Middle East engagement (the longest in our history);
4. Pine Gap facility (making us a nuclear target);
5. Assistance to NASA (including allowing Skylab to plumet into Western Australia);
6. US troops based in Northern Territory;
7. Submarine Rotational Force – West;
8. Amounts paid for not always functioning US built defence (with a ‘c’ thank you Donald) materiel;
9. Deposit of 500 million USD on likely never appearing Virginia Class submarines; and
10. Other stuff.

To use Donald J Trump’s usual calculus, let’s round this up to 500 Billion – and that’s real dollars baby. Not South Pacific Pesos.

OK Donald, keep your tariffs, we don’t care, we don’t sell you enough to worry about anyway. However, if you want us to keep providing you with the support you need down here in that one area of the world in which you appear to be interested to any degree (setting aside invading/buying the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada) then – here’s the bill. Meantime, we will chat to some of your other ‘not quite good enough’ to be allies, such as Singapore and Japan, and work out an arrangement which is more representative of what being an ally is actually about. If this does not appeal, well, good luck mate, you are on your own. See ya!

References
– How Trump Sees Allies and Partners, Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, November 18, 2024.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-trump-sees-allies-and-partners
– Trump’s Prism: No Ally Is Good Enough, Victor Cha, President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, and Andy Lim, Deputy Director and Fellow, Korea Chair, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, February 18, 2025.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/trumps-prism-no-ally-good-enough