Friday, March 29, 2024

Foot and mouth outbreak could cost livestock sector $80bn

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Cattle in yards

While the risk remains low, the threat of a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is hanging over a well-prepared Australian livestock industry.

The disease, which impacts cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, sheep, goats and pig, has recently spread across Indonesia, increasing the relatively restrained risk of a severe outbreak in Australia.

While Australia has not had a case of FMD since 1872 and the disease has been endemic in parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East for some time, the May outbreak in Indonesia and July cases in Bali bring the infectious disease closer to home, according to Michael Curtis, senior agricultural analyst at Rural Bank.

As a result The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Analysis increased its assessment of the probability of such an outbreak in Australia over the next five years, reaching 11.6% in June 2022, a 9% rise on March 2021.

Rural Bank has highlighted the country’s ramping up of biosecurity measures in response, with the federal government allocating $9 million for increased surveillance, biosecurity personnel, and education for travellers returning from Indonesia.

This in addition to spending a further $5 million to help control the impact of the outbreak in Indonesia, including for the distribution of vaccines.

Size of Australian livestock industries in 2021/22

 Number of livestockGross value of productionValue of exports
Beef cattle22.8m$15.8b$11.0b
Dairy2.3m$4.9b$3.5b
Sheep69.0m$4.7b$3.8b
Wool $3.1b$3.4b
Pigs2.4m$1.5b$140m
Total121.5m$30.3b$21.8b

Data source: ABARES

Indonesia’s own efforts have already seen the cases down from their late-June peak, with vaccine administration rolled out quickly and effectively.

Despite the risk remaining marginal and measures already in place, an outbreak would have significant impacts on Australia’s $30 billion livestock sector.

Australia’s largest livestock industry of beef cattle alone had a $15.8 billion gross value of production and the value of exports at $11 billion in 2021/22, while dairy had a gross value production of $4.9 billion, with value of exports at $3.5 billion.

Modelling from ABARES projects that the direct economic impacts on the country’s livestock sectors could total more than $80 billion over 10 years.

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