Climate change has such a large negative impact on Ukrainian agriculture that it affects the country’s
macroeconomic indicators.
Sowing season in Ukraine is ending
Farmers from all regions of Ukraine have sown 5.5 million hectares of spring grain and leguminous crops. This is 97 per cent of the projected area. Currently, the largest area of crops is corn – 3.94 million hectares (98 per cent), barley – 744.4 thousand hectares (96 per cent), spring wheat has already been sown on 217.1 thousand hectares (95 per cent), peas – 212.1 thousand hectares (98 per cent), oats – 158.6 thousand hectares (98 per cent). Buckwheat has been sown on an area of 66.0 thousand hectares (75 per cent), millet – 66.1 thousand hectares (87 per cent).
Leading regions in terms of sowing rates:
- Poltava region: 557.3 thousand hectares (wheat – 4.5 thousand hectares, barley – 69.1 thousand hectares, peas – 9.6 thousand hectares, oats – 3.1 thousand hectares, corn – 455.1 thousand hectares);
- Chernihiv region: 489.7 thousand hectares (wheat – 12.0 thousand hectares, barley – 13.0 thousand hectares, peas – 9.4 thousand hectares, oats – 23.5 thousand hectares, corn – 412.3 thousand hectares);
- Vinnytsia region: 393.8 thousand hectares ha (wheat – 11.5 thousand ha, barley – 53.0 thousand ha, peas – 7.0 thousand ha, oats – 1.1 thousand ha, corn – 309.1 thousand ha);
- Sumy region: 390.6 thousand ha (wheat – 21.5 thousand ha, barley – 18.2 thousand ha, peas – 5.8 thousand ha, oats – 9.8 thousand ha, corn – 328.2 thousand ha);
- Cherkasy region: 387.7 thousand ha (wheat – 2.0 thousand ha, barley – 30.2 thousand ha, peas – 5.0 thousand ha, oats – 0.8 thousand ha, corn – 345.9 thousand ha).
Industrial crops are sown on an area of 7.38 million hectares (93 per cent). Of these: sunflower – 4.73 million hectares (93 per cent). The leader is Dnipropetrovsk region – 805.4 thousand hectares; soybeans – 2.23 million hectares (92 per cent).
In total, in 2025, it is planned to sow about 5.7 million hectares of spring grain and leguminous crops, which corresponds to the level of 2024. The main feature of the new season will be an increase in the area under spring wheat to 227.5 thousand hectares. Such changes in the crop structure correspond to stable demand for wheat from processing enterprises and exporters.0
Specifics of the seeding campaign
The 2025 sowing campaign was generally successful. However, this spring cannot be called ordinary. The reason is the abnormal climate change, which has begun to negatively affect agriculture. Under martial law, this is not being paid attention to yet. In vain. The war will end sooner or later. But climate change is unlikely to be stopped. Let’s consider in detail the impact of abnormal weather on Ukrainian agriculture in the spring of 2025.
Due to the abnormally warm weather,1 the sowing campaign began much earlier than usual. This had never happened before. The first farmers began sowing hard wheat varieties in the south of Ukraine back in February!2 Already at the beginning of March, mass sowing of spring crops took place in two regions. And in March 13, 83,000 hectares or 205,097 acres of grain and leguminous crops were sown in 13 regions of the country!3 Such early sowing was a mistake. However, it was not only people who made a mistake.
Simultaneously with the early activation of farmers, the same early growth of winter crops and awakening of fruit trees began. In many regions, the air temperature in February was 1.0-12.3°C above normal. The temperature began to rise above +5°C or 41°F. The buds on the trees swelled and the growth of winter crops began!4 These crops were also sown under extreme conditions in the fall of 2024. Then, in the first ten days of September, the reserves of productive moisture in the arable soil layer in the fields intended for sowing winter crops were unsatisfactory (less than 10 mm of productive moisture) and insufficient (11-20 mm) in most areas.5 Winter wheat was weakened by unfavorable weather conditions in the fall. After that, abnormally warm weather at the end of winter again jeopardised winter crops. The grain began to grow too early. And this aggravated the effects of late frosts. Winter crops also made the mistake of trusting the weather!
In April and May, frosts always occur in Ukraine. This is a common phenomenon that has a very limited effect on the future harvest. But everything has changed in recent years. Due to the abnormally warm winter, the vegetative cycle of plants begins too early. Therefore, most plants encounter frosts at a growth stage that is not typical for this phenomenon. It is the too early growth of plants due to a warm winter, and not frosts, that cause large losses for Ukrainian farmers.6
People, like plants, cannot predict weather changes. One of the high-ranking Ukrainian meteorologists admitted that out of 12 monthly forecasts, only one came true.7 Incredible!
As a result, some farmers had to replant spring crops. But in many segments of agriculture, it was impossible to correct the consequences of the abnormal weather.
Consequences of a warm winter and spring frosts
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine acknowledges the negative impact of frosts on crops. According to official data, frosts destroyed about 10 per cent of the future harvest of spring crops.8 But these losses can vary significantly depending on the region, the sphere of agriculture, and even individual farms.
Some farmers report that frosts have destroyed 50 per cent of crops in their fields. For example, such information is voiced in the Kherson region.9 At the level of some regions, it is reported that 15-20 per cent of spring crops have been destroyed. For example, this is reported in the Kirovograd region.10 There is information that wheat suffered less from frosts than barley and winter rapeseed. There is information that orchards and berry plantations suffered more from frost than spring and winter crops. In some regions, frosts have destroyed 60-100 per cent of the future harvest of berries and fruits. This for example, is reported in the Chernivtsi region.11 According to unofficial forecasts, about 30 per cent of the national harvest of fruits and berries may be destroyed.12
Ten to 30 per cent is quite a big loss. Therefore, many farmers tried to correct the situation and replant spring crops before May 20-25. According to unofficial forecasts, this will help reduce losses to three to five per cent of the total harvest.13 That is, reduce the negative effects of frost by two to three times. However, the situation in the fruit and berry production sector cannot be improved. There will be no harvest!
This creates a new consequence of the warm winter and spring frosts – rising prices. According to official data, the frosts caused such a strong rise in prices for early fruits and vegetables that it caused inflation to increase in April to 15.5 per cent! In the summer, the size of inflation will depend “on the impact of spring frosts and weather conditions in the summer on the supply and prices of agricultural products.”14 The weather determines the macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine!
In early May, the price of young cabbage was 60-70 hryvnia or US$1.4-1.68 per 1 kg or 2.2 pounds. This is 6.4 times more than a year earlier. The price of strawberries was 200 hryvnia or US$4.8 per 1 kg or 2.2 pounds. This is 25 per cent more than a year ago. The price of tomatoes was 70-100 hryvnia or US$1.68-2.4 per 1 kg or 2.2 pounds. This is 15 per cent more than a year earlier.15 The price increase will continue. During the summer, vegetables may become more expensive by 10-20 per cent. And the price of fruit will increase by 20-30 per cent. The reason for this will be a small harvest due to frosts.16
Conclusions
Climate change has a negative impact on Ukrainian agriculture. This impact is so great that it affects the macroeconomic indicators of the Ukrainian economy. Perhaps Ukraine is one of the few countries where climate change is of such great importance. This is explained by the country’s weakening due to the war with Russia. But it is impossible to limit the negative impact of climate until the war is over.
References
0. https://minagro.gov.ua/news/ahrarii-zasiialy-vzhe-55-mln-ha-iarykh-zernovykh-ta-zernobobovykh-kultur
1. https://arr.news/2024/10/15/ukrainian-villagers-face-a-new-enemy/
2. https://agroelita.info/na-pivdni-ukrainy-startuvala-posivna-kampaniia-2025/
3. https://minagro.gov.ua/news/ukrainski-ahrarii-rozpochaly-aktyvnu-sivbu-rannikh-iarovykh-kultur
4. https://agroportal.ua/ru/news/rastenievodstvo/na-ozimih-kulturah-fiksuyut-neznachni-rostovi-procesi-ta-povilnu-vegetaciyu
5. https://mind.ua/publications/20279174-vrozhayi-voennogo-chasu-pyat-osoblivostej-osinnoyi-posivnoyi-kampaniyi
6. https://agroportal.ua/ru/news/rastenievodstvo/zamorozki-dlya-kvitnya-ye-normoyu-ale-cogorichni-bilsh-zgubni-dlya-sadiv-i-ozimih
7. https://glavcom.ua/interviews/ahrometeoroloh-tetjana-adamenko-abrikos-cherez-hlobalne-poteplinnja-staje-u-nas-ekzotichnoju-kulturoju-1053121.html
8. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-2025-grain-harvest-may-fall-10-minister-says-2025-06-03/
9. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryazovya-vrozhayi-na-pivdni-nyshchat-viyna-ta-zamorozky/33409348.html
10. https://suspilne.media/kropyvnytskiy/1015981-zamorozki-poskodili-ozimi-na-kirovogradsini-ak-ce-vpline-na-vrozaj/
11. https://agronomy.com.ua/novyny/3195-vesniani-zamorozky-znyshchyly-do-80protsent-urozhaiu-abrykosiv-i-persykiv-v-ukraini.html
12. https://glavred.net/economics/dva-vida-populyarnyh-fruktov-mogut-ischeznut-s-prilavkov-kakaya-prichina-10662821.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
13. https://landlord.ua/news/roslinnitstvo/ukrayinski-agrariyi-vryatuvaly-urozhaj-zbytky-vid-zamorozkiv-ne-perevyshhat-5-prognoz-meteorologiv
14. https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/zamorozki-pidnyali-inflyatsiyu-maksimumu-1749122280.html
15. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/noviy-sezon-chogo-chekati-vid-tsin-ovochi-1746552224.html
16. https://24tv.ua/agro24/tsini-produkti-zrostut-do-oseni-2025-shho-podorozhchaye-naybilshe_n2837383
