Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Media Release, 8 April 2025

Today’s release of Bendigo Bank Agribusiness’ Monthly Commodity Update finds that US tariffs should have less impact than initially expected, however dry conditions across key cropping regions still have grain producers on edge. Lamb markets are stable with wool a bright spot, while supply chain issues for fruit and vegetables have seen a lift in wholesale prices on the east coast and a struggle to get new crops in the  ground due to soggy conditions.

Senior Manager Industry Affairs, Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, Neil Burgess said: “The imposition of the ten per cent US tariff is expected to translate into only a minimal reduction of Australian beef export volume to that market, with beef export volumes to the USA expected to continue at high levels. At this stage, the only limiting factor to exports is the processing capacity of local centres due to supply chain issues.”

“Barley and canola exports are running well ahead of pace, helped by strong early-season shipments, but wheat is lagging, with China mostly absent from the  market and appetite for wheat imports remaining soft, held back by large domestic supplies and soft quota limits. Weather will remain in focus as we head into the seeding window, particularly across southern cropping regions where conditions remain critically dry.”

“Australian wool has been a welcome bright spot with the market gaining ground over the past month and the AWEX EMI finishing higher in five out of the last  six weeks to now sit at 1,249c/kg. This has resulted in the EMI gaining 54 cents since the last selling week in February, now up +9.4 per cent from this time last year,” Mr Burgess concluded.

Fast facts

Beef:

Australian cattle prices recorded moderate growth again throughout March with prices peaking in the final week of the month. Supply chain  issues limiting available cattle on markets provided underlying support for prices, as did ongoing export demand. The National Young Cattle Indicator moved to a peak of 371c/kg on the final day of March, but despite the increase, prices are still 15 per cent  below the five-year average. Prices are forecast to see a marginal increase throughout April with continued export demand and the market recovering from wet weather which wreaked havoc on transportation and processing capacity. The ten per cent US tariff is expected to translate into only a minimal reduction of Australian beef export volume to that market. Beef export volumes to the USA are expected continue at high levels in March as witnessed over the past year, with the only limiting factor being the processing capacity of local centres due to supply chain issues. Beef is forecast to remain in high demand from consumers and with US beef importers, who will now be paying more to access product. It seems likely this will have a flow on effect to US domestic consumers. See: Full beef report and US Tariff update

Cropping:

All eyes are on the weather heading into a key period where conditions will shape the market. Dry conditions at home and crop risks in the Northern Hemisphere could see prices lift. A keen watch is for April and May rainfall to set up winter cropping. Any delays or crop stress abroad  will add more fuel to the market. Barley and canola exports are running well ahead of pace, helped by strong early-season shipments. This factor, combined with robust domestic demand, has kept both commodities well balanced in terms of carryout at the end of the season, supporting prices throughout the season. Wheat on the other hand is lagging, with China mostly absent from the market. China’s appetite for wheat imports remains soft, held back by large domestic supplies and soft quota limits. If export volumes stay low, we could see a build-up in wheat stocks, pressuring prices into the new season. Recent grains market activity has been heavily influenced by factors unrelated to supply and demand – most notably, the Trump administration’s reintroduction of tariffs. While these trade tensions are expected to shift global trade flows over time, the extent to which they will impact overall demand remains uncertain. See: Full cropping report

Dairy:

The average southern farmgate milk price has lifted 1.7 per cent from opening to sit around $8.25/kg MS. Burra and Lactalis are the latest processors to provide step ups to suppliers. Burra confirmed a 10 cent step up, and Lactalis 15 cents to average 8.35/kg MS and 8.40/kg MS respectively. February milk production in Australia was 4.8 per cent lower year-on-year. Dry conditions in southern states have seen Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania record their largest year-on-year declines in February. National season-to-date milk production now sits 0.1 per cent below last season. Year-on-year production is expected to continue to fall behind last season with weather outlooks showing little relief in the near term. Our full season forecast for milk production remains at 8.3 billion litres. Feeder steer prices  are also expected to take a hit with the US 10 per cent tariff on Australian beef. Local prices are expected to soften in coming weeks, but US demand for Australian beef is expected to remain firm. This should see prices supported through 2025. See: Full dairy report

Horticulture:

Substantial rainfall totals across Queensland regions are continuing to impact horticultural producers. This may see limited availability across the east coast over coming weeks. Vegetable producers throughout these regions are also struggling to get crops in the ground. The peak autumn planting of vegetable crops is underway with ongoing rainfall continuing to hamper efforts. This may have a longer-term impact with the reduced availability of these vegetables when harvest kicks off. The ongoing supply chain disruptions through Queensland and New South Wales have seen fruit and veg prices surge higher. The wholesale price index for both fruit and veg now sits well above the same point last season. Should seasonal weather disruptions ease throughout April, we may see prices decline coming into May. From a trade perspective, the direct impact of 10 per cent US import tariffs on the horticultural sector is expected to be relatively limited, however, we would expect the shifting trade flows to result in more competitive markets for citrus exports. Having said this, citrus greening disease (HBL) in Florida should support demand for Australian citrus. The other key risk to the Australian horticultural sector remains the prospect of a slowing Chinese economy. China remains by far our largest market for horticultural exports. A hit to the Chinese economy would be keenly felt, particularly across our fruit and nut sectors. See: Full horticulture report

Sheep:

Australian lamb markets have shown relative stability throughout March, easing slightly through the latter half of the month before finishing  strongly. The National Trade Lamb Indicator is now at 803 c/kg, marking marks a +2.4 per cent increase from the end of February and up +6.6 per cent compared to the five-year average. Prices continue to be supported by strong processing capacity, although key sheep producing regions in South Australia and western Victoria remain relatively dry which is limiting upside. Lamb supply has remained elevated throughout March, with the average weekly slaughter totalling 492 thousand head. Average  processing rates in March were slightly lower than that of February, however, this is mainly due to public holidays. Processing rates were still up +5.7 per cent compared to March 2024 and 27.2 per cent above the five-year average for the month. Supply is expected to remain heightened throughout April but expected to dwindle as we get closer to the middle of the year. This is expected to coincide with a tightening in supply of mutton. Lamb prices are expected to ease in April as the market adjusts to the implementation of tariffs from the US, however, continued strong processing capacity and tightening supply are expected to limit downside. A strong autumn break across South Australia and western Victoria will play a big role in easing supply pressure. See: Full sheep report

Wool:

The Australian wool market  has gained ground over the past month. The AWEX EMI finishing higher in five out of the last six weeks and now sitting at 1,249c/kg. This has resulted in the EMI gaining 54 cents since the last selling week in February and is now up +9.4 per cent from this  time last year. Supply has been relatively steady over the past four weeks with the national offering averaging almost 39 thousand bales over this period. However, this is still down six per cent compared to the same period last season. March did see an increase  in wool testing volumes, increasing to the highest level since November 2024 but the total for March this year was still slightly lower than for March 2024. The Australian Dollar has eased slightly over the past five weeks resulting in the EMI in USc terms  gaining 31 cents to now sit at 787 USc/kg, although it did reach as high as 794 USc/kg in week 38. Wool prices are expected to face pressure throughout April as the market adjusts to escalating trade tensions. The implementation of US tariffs on China and  Europe is expected to reduce demand downstream and limit enthusiasm in auction rooms, although reduced production this season as well as the weaker Australian Dollar is expected to be supportive. See: Full wool report

Climate and carbon:

The Australian beef industry is no stranger to sustainability. Plenty of sustainability measures and goals have been set by the industry at various times to make sure Aussie beef producers are doing their bit. In 2017, the Australian red meat and livestock industry set a target to be carbon neutral by 2030, known as the CN30 initiative. The endgame of this project is to see Australian beef, lamb and goat production, along with processing, to have no net release of greenhouse gas emissions. The industry appears to be on track to achieving this with industry body Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) contributing strongly to this project, investing more than $152 million into research and funding. Looking at sustainability from a longer-term perspective, Australian red meat greenhouse gas emissions have reduced by 78 per cent since 2005 to 31Mt CO2 equivalent. The red meat industry’s contribution to national emissions has also fallen from 22 per cent in 2005 to 10 per cent, indicating that the project is working and is making a difference. MLA has also invested in extension, development and research into supporting the red meat supply chain. Key projects include understanding the impacts of climate change on animal production, life expectancies and welfare, improved grazing management and developing functional options to soften GHG from the perspective of a livestock producer. See: Full climate and carbon report

See also – Latest Unpacking Ag podcast: Unpacking the changing landscape of the Australian wine industry: Times have been hard for Australia’s wine sector, which struggles against shifting economic conditions and the loss of the Chinese market, resulting in a domestic oversupply. In this episode, we unpack how changing consumer preferences have impacted market conditions and what that means for Australian growers and wineries. We also discuss the 2025 vintage and where grape prices are expected to trend.