James Morrell, Muval CEO, Media Release, 22 June 2023

National online removalist booking platform Muval, which has the most up-to-date internal migration figures showing where Australians are moving right now, has crunched the May numbers to show the impact a year on from the start of interest rate rises.

Victoria

Melbourne

With a quarter (25 per cent) of all inbound major metro moving enquiries in May, Melbourne remains the number one city to move to in Australia for the 15th month in a row, showing the city is the place to be amid the cost-of-living crisis, in stark contrast to Covid.

Mostly buoyed by Sydney residents, as well as people moving from Brisbane and Perth, the city is hovering near positive net migration based on moving enquiries. It’s currently at -15 per cent and was last in positive territory before the pandemic when it sat at +3 per cent in January 2020. During the pandemic it hit a negative net migration low of -61 per cent in August 2020.

Melbourne’s outbound moving traffic is also easing, accounting for 26 per cent of all outbound metro moving enquiries (second behind Sydney on 32 per cent) in May – the last time it was this low was pre-pandemic (26 per cent in February 2020).

Watch this space: Looking into our removalist’s crystal ball, we can see ever growing interest to move in to Ballarat, particularly from interstate, which will likely keep growing as Melbourne continues to fill back up.

Queensland

Brisbane

While Brisbane is the second most popular city to move with around a fifth (22 per cent) of all metro moves to the river city, it is also losing residents to Melbourne, Perth and Muval is seeing growth in regional outbound requests to towns such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Rockhampton and Toowoomba, perhaps as rental and rate rises continue to put the squeeze on city-slickers this year.

The city has hit a record high for outbound moving enquiries, accounting for 19 per cent of all outbound metro moves, up from 18 per cent for the first four months of the year and third behind Sydney and Melbourne.

With so many residents abandoning the city, Brisbane is hovering near negative net migration based on moving enquiries at +5 per cent in May, a sharp six month slide from the +32 per cent in December last year when the city was still a sizzling hot spot off the back of the pandemic.

Gold Coast

According to online moving enquiries, interest to move to the Gold Coast is waning, with inbound moving enquiries to the town down 16 per cent in the first half (Jan-May) of this year compared to the same time last year.

While the region is still in positive net migration (+50 per cent in May), the big influxes we saw in recent years, particularly the pandemic high of +540 per cent positive net migration seen in 2021, are settling down, and there’s now growing interest to move out whilst inbound enquiries are down. Enquiries to move out of the Gold Coast have increased 44 per cent in the first half (Jan-May) of this year compared to the same time last year.

Gold Coast residents are looking to move to a mixture of cities and smaller towns, with some appearing to move back to the big smoke now the pandemic is over and others in search of more affordable housing that’s still in a desirable waterfront location such as Newcastle, Port Macquarie, the Central Coast or Hobart.  

Here are the top 10 places people are move from the Gold Coast to in 2023:

• Melbourne
• Sydney
• Adelaide
• Canberra
• Newcastle
• Central Coast NSW
• Gladstone
• Hobart
• Darwin
• Port Macquarie

Sunshine Coast

With positive net migration still sitting at more than +100 per cent (during the pandemic it reached a high of +500 per cent), there is more interest to move into the Sunshine Coast than out. Inbound moving enquiries are up 20 per cent in the first half (Jan-May) of this year compared to the same time last year, while outbound enquiries are still relatively low albeit with some small increases.

The main movement is coming from Brisbane and while there is still some interest from Melbourne, it’s not as strong as during the pandemic, and Sydney is now the second most popular metro feeder into the Sunshine Coast.

In interesting moving trends, residents from Canberra, Adelaide, Hobart and Geelong are starting to show increased interest in the coastal area.

Cairns

After pandemic highs of +200 per cent positive net migration in 2021 and a buoyant market in 2022, Cairns is cooling. There were 50 per cent more outbound moving enquiries in the first half (Jan-May) of this year compared to the same time last year, and they were mostly headed to the big smoke – Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide. There is still traffic coming in from these cities, mostly Brisbane, as cashed up city buyers snap up what may be some of the last bargains, helping to keep net migration positive (+89 per cent in May).

Watch this space: Looking into our removalist’s crystal ball, there is unusually high churn coming out of Townsville as waves of people move in and out. Residents from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are moving in, and those leaving Townsville are heading to Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart and Launceston. Meanwhile Toowoomba, Bundaberg and Rockhampton have all been experiencing sustained positive net migration, with traffic flowing from Brisbane into the regional towns.

Western Australia

Perth

While Perth’s positive net migration is the strongest in the country, it showed signs of slowing in May, slipping from an average of around +100 per cent this year to +86 per cent in May.

Though a far cry from the 2021 pandemic high of +181 per cent and 2022 peak of +149 per cent, Perth is still a hot spot with residents fleeing higher cost of living pressures in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. In May, 18 per cent of all major metro moves were to Perth – the fourth month in a row more people wanted to move to Perth than Sydney (17 per cent). While Perth remains in third place behind Melbourne (25 per cent) and Brisbane (22 per cent) as the most popular city to move to, the western capital’s outbound percentage was only 8 per cent in May, hammering home that more people are moving in than out, which may lead to a tightening of the housing market.

New South Wales

Sydney

Once considered the most liveable city in Australia, Sydney’s woes continued in May as the Harbour City cemented its place as only the fourth most popular city to move to. With 17 per cent of all major metro inbound enquiries, Sydney is not as desirable as Melbourne, Brisbane or Perth. And with one in three (32 per cent) of all outbound metro moving enquiries in May from Sydney, with most headed to Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, residents appear to be flocking to more affordable abodes around the country. It has now been 18 straight months where one in three outbound metro moving enquiries is from the city, suggesting that the cost-of-living exodus could be on par with Covid. Because of the steady flow out, negative net migration remains high -55 per cent. This is in line with the -50-60 per cent seen throughout 2022, showing that Sydney has been on the nose for well over a year.

Byron Bay

Byron Bay was one of the hottest property markets in 2020 and 2021 as Melburnians and Sydneysiders fled north, fed up with lock down life in the city.

While it was ‘hot’ before the pandemic, Muval’s moving data showed a spike in the third quarter of 2020 followed by a major peak in the last quarter of 2021 when twice as many people moved to Byron than the last quarter of 2020.

When interest rates started going up in May 2022 we saw requests to “move to” Byron drop to the lowest level after the pandemic peaks. However, since then it has been a powerhouse and is continuing to rise. According to online moving enquiries, interest to move to Byron in the first half (Jan-May) of this year is up 46 per cent on the same time last year.

While Melburnians were the main movers during Covid, Brisbane and Sydney residents are now on par with those from Melbourne as metro residents exit cities for a sea change.

Residents from the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are also strong feeder markets as they swap their Queensland coastal towns for a northern NSW alternative.

Newcastle

We might be seeing signs that Newcastle is on the cusp of becoming a hot property market with interest to move into the city up 90 per cent in the first half (Jan-May) of this year compared to the same time last year.

It has been a market on the move for several years but of late there has been major interest from Sydneysiders wanting to move in, as well as increased activity from Hobart.

Watch this space: Looking into our removalist’s crystal ball (most online moving enquiries are made at least 30 days prior to a move), we can see that any area between Sydney and Newcastle that is offering better affordability than Sydney is heating up, with Gosford and Woy Woy standing out on the Central Coast. Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour are starting to simmer as we’re seeing some small spikes of traffic in and out of these coastal towns.

South Australia

Adelaide

Adelaide is in its 10th straight month of negative net migration based on moving enquiries, and May saw a big fall from -9 per cent in March to -18 per cent, showing more residents are moving out than in. Outbound migration sat at 9 per cent in May, while the city received just 8 per cent of all major metro inbound moving enquiries.

For more information visit muval.com.au

About Muval

Muval is a free platform that helps people find the best local and interstate removalists in Australia, compare their prices, and book online. Muval.com.au is one of the top ranked moving house platforms in Australia and provides an important service for those looking to save time and money when looking to move house. As people typically enquire about removalists up to 30 days before they move, Muval data, which is based on online searches for removalists, is a proven early indicator of moving trends in Australia, with the University of Queensland recognising the platform as a reliable source for migration forecasting.