Rabobank

Results of the quarter two Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey, reveal optimism about high agricultural commodity prices and the prospect of a third consecutive bumper grains harvest has been reined in by the increasing cost of vital farm inputs such as fertiliser, fuel, freight and machinery and broader inflationary pressures in the Australian economy.

While global milk production is set to have decreased for at least four consecutive quarters from Q3 2021 to the current quarter Q2 2022 expectations of weakening demand are creating a scenario for moderate price declines in dairy commodities during the second half of 2022, Rabobank says in its latest global Dairy Quarterly report.

First-mover companies around the world are taking the next steps to meet their emissions reduction goals and beginning to release climate-neutral beef products on to shelves, Rabobank says in its latest global Beef Quarterly report.

Australia is laying the groundwork for a third consecutive bumper harvest, with this year’s total planted crop area forecast to reach a record 23.83 million hectares, Rabobank says in its just-released 2022/23 Winter Crop Outlook ... Locally, the bank says, “hopes are on” another large winter crop to allow Australian farmers to secure good margins in the face of high costs for inputs including fertiliser, fuel, freight and agrochemicals.

The outlook shows 2022/23 may be the first year since 2012/13 in which the world has to consume less grain than the previous year – due to high prices and low supply, says Rabobank senior commodities analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon.   “This is forecast to be a drop of only 0.1%, but that compares to average annual growth of 2.1% over the past decade,” she said.

RaboResearch general manager for Australia and New Zealand Stefan Vogel said, in particular, there are four specific impacts of the lockdowns in China that are set to have increasing ramifications for Australian agribusiness – disruptions to freight logistics, Chinese corn plantings, dairy demand and hog pricing.

The global wine sector is facing significant disruptions in different links of the supply chain. The common assumption was that these issues were transitory. Now there are increasing signs that some of these changes are structural and could even get worse, requiring more strategic responses.

Farmgate milk prices have increased significantly across the world’s major dairy export regions and further “upside” in milk prices remains, Rabobank says in its latest Rabobank Global Dairy Quarterly report. The report says that even before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global dairy commodity prices were “soaring” due to a global supply shortfall.

Australia wheat farmers can expect increased farmgate prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although the local impact is not expected to match that seen globally. Together, Russia and Ukraine make up nearly 30% of global wheat exports. Ukraine’s military has suspended commercial shipping at its Black Sea ports, which is tipped to disrupt the supply chains of grain and oilseeds exporters.

Demand and prices for fine and mid-micron wool are forecast to pick up as workers return to offices around the world, according to a report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank ... Rabobank agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski said while consumer confidence is waning in the world’s two largest markets for wool, the US and China, there are positive factors that will push prices higher.