Rabobank

The nation is on track to plant an impressive 23.48 million hectare winter crop this year – up slightly on last year’s crop area – Rabobank says in its newly-released 2023/24 Australian Winter Crop Outlook ... overall harvest totals are forecast to be lower than last season, with expectations of drier growing conditions due to the likely transition to an El Nino climate cycle, the specialist agribusiness bank says.

Farm fertiliser "affordability" is starting to improve across the globe, with a likely recovery in application in some regions in 2023, Rabobank says in a recently-released report ... The report, titled Improved Affordability Ahead, says global fertiliser prices had begun to trend higher in 2021 due to supply chain constraints resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.

So far in May, the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index has declined a modest 0.6% amid the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) and ample grain and oilseed supplies ... Losses across most G&O markets (-2.6% on average) were largely offset by gains across softs (+2.2%).

Australia’s beef sector is set for a return to "more normal" market conditions in the season ahead, after a recent extraordinary period marked by record prices levels and volatility, according to Rabobank’s Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2023. But while prices are projected to track in a narrower range – at close to current levels – through the year, this is still "historically high’ and expectations are that beef producer margins will remains strong, the agribusiness banking specialist says.

The global avocado trade will continue to grow in the next few years, but the market will be more competitive, forcing operators to be not only more efficient, but also increasingly sustainable, according to a new report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank. In the report Global Avocado Growth Far From Over, Rabobank says world avocado production expanded by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately seven per cent over the past decade.

Australian dairy producers can look forward to another favourable season in 2023/24, with the sector set for its fourth consecutive profitable year, Rabobank says in its recently-released annual Australian Dairy Seasonal Outlook.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, released on 26 April 2023, shows annual top-line Australian food price inflation had slowed to 8.0 per cent in the March 2023 quarter, from 9.2 per cent seen in the previous (December 2022) quarter. Rabobank senior food retail analyst Michael Harvey said while this easing was good news for consumers ... the figure was still well above the long-term (10-year) average of food inflation of 2.2 per cent.

For now, the orange juice market is staying tight for at least another season, unless there is a significant supply-side surprise for the 2023/24 harvest in Brazil or a much sharper contraction in global demand in 2H 2023. According to a recent Rabobank report, record-high orange juice (OJ) prices in 2023 are a consequence of a very tight market, with smaller-than-expected production and low inventories.

Australia’s future food and fibre production is being threatened by surging land prices, NSW Farmers says. NSW Farmers Young Farmers Council chair Martin Murray said the price rises meant young people looking to enter the industry will find it harder to get a start.

Australian agricultural land is on track for another year of strong price growth in 2023, agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank says in its newly-released annual Australian Agricultural Land Price Outlook ... Agricultural land prices were found to have recorded double digit percentage growth on the previous year in all states, with South Australian farmland prices rising the most – at 34 per cent.