Rabobank

Growing global and local demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could spell good news for Australian agriculture, with the country’s farmers well placed to provide low- emissions feedstock to be used in future production, according to new industry research ... the largest contribution to cutting aviation emissions over the next decade will come from transitioning to the use of sustainable aviation fuel, which is commonly produced from agricultural products and by-products.

The global dairy market may experience a slower price recovery than previously anticipated, particularly as China shows a reduced need for dairy imports, Rabobank says in recently-released sector research. But, despite this, the overall market outlook remains positive, the global specialist agribusiness bank says in its Q2 Global Dairy Quarterly, titled Searching for Equilibrium.

Australian farmland prices are set for further growth in the year ahead – but at a slowing pace – Rabobank says in its just-released annual Australian Farmland Price Outlook. The global agribusiness banking specialist says after three consecutive years of "double- digit" growth, the momentum in agricultural land price increases is expected to further slow in 2024, as farm profitability levels come off record highs.

Australia’s cattle market is sitting in a "state of balance" – with improved beef production waiting on an increase in demand – but an upside in prices is expected towards the end of the year, Rabobank says in its Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2024. The current absence of any strong demand – along with a higher herd inventory, with no real liquidation or rebuilding urgency...

A recent Rabobank report highlights a complex scenario for the global fertiliser market – fertiliser costs are down, but so are commodity prices, squeezing farmers’ margins. Demand for certain fertilisers, such as phosphates, is experiencing a downturn.

Global vegetable trade value rose amid cost increases; production down in some major markets. The value of the global vegetable trade rose in line with rising prices, reaching 3 per cent average annual growth from 2017 to 2022, according to Rabobank’s recently-published World Vegetable Map.

Australian consumers are facing higher chocolate prices heading into Easter, as global cocoa prices soar, according to Rabobank data. The global agribusiness banking specialist says data analysis shows Australian retail chocolate prices overall are up 8.8 per cent on the previous year.

Australia’s grain growers are looking to improved prospects in the season ahead, with 2024/25 gross margins set to increase on the back of a lower cost of production, Rabobank says in newly-released research report ... The report, Australia’s winter crop gross margins – which analyses winter crop performance from 2017/2018 – forecasts 2024/25 average gross margins for the three major Australian winter crops (wheat, barley and canola)...

More than halfway into the current dairy season, Australian milk production is firing on all cylinders, Rabobank says, with widespread growth in milk supply across all dairying regions due to favourable seasonal conditions and good farmgate margins. In its recently-released Q1 Global Dairy Quarterly report … Australian milk production reached 5.35 billion litres from the period July 2023 to January 2024…

With limited or negative real wages growth expected in 2024, coupled with the higher cost environment, Rabobank expects global beef consumption will at best remain steady and possibly decline through 2024, with some notable regional variations ... sales are often expected to suffer when economic conditions put pressures on consumer spending.